The bracket as the simulations expect it
Conference play has not started, so these are the seeds the simulations expect, not anyone's position. Each pairing shows the favorite and its chance; the likelier winner moves on.
First round
Second round
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Final
How far each team gets
| Seed | Team | Second round | Quarters | Semis | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arizona | ✓ | ✓ | 79% | 55% | 33% |
| 2 |  Iowa State | ✓ | ✓ | 76% | 43% | 23% |
| 3 |  Houston | ✓ | ✓ | 68% | 37% | 20% |
| 4 |  Texas Tech | ✓ | ✓ | 57% | 22% | 9% |
| 5 |  Kansas | ✓ | 70% | 34% | 13% | 5% |
| 6 |  BYU | ✓ | 66% | 24% | 10% | 4% |
| 8 |  Cincinnati | ✓ | 57% | 13% | 5% | 2% |
| 7 |  TCU | ✓ | 58% | 16% | 5% | 2% |
| 9 |  Baylor | 69% | 34% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| 10 |  UCF | 60% | 28% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| 11 |  West Virginia | 57% | 21% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 12 |  Oklahoma State | 51% | 15% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 13 |  Colorado | 49% | 14% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 14 |  Arizona State | 43% | 13% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| 15 |  Kansas State | 40% | 14% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 16 |  Utah | 31% | 9% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
Exact, not simulated: from these seeds, the chance of reaching each round, every game on a neutral floor in Kansas City. The tournament odds on The Race also carry the uncertainty of the seeds themselves, so the two differ until the season is done.