The race to Kansas City
| Team | Big 12 | Left | Proj. wins | Share of title | No. 1 seed | Double bye | Bye | Wins tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arizona | 0–0 | 18 | 13.4 | 49% | 39% | 89% | 99% | 31% |
 Iowa State | 0–0 | 18 | 12.8 | 34% | 26% | 80% | 97% | 21% |
 Houston | 0–0 | 18 | 12.3 | 27% | 20% | 74% | 96% | 20% |
 Texas Tech | 0–0 | 18 | 10.7 | 8% | 6% | 41% | 82% | 8% |
 Kansas | 0–0 | 18 | 10.5 | 6% | 4% | 35% | 80% | 6% |
 BYU | 0–0 | 18 | 10.3 | 5% | 3% | 31% | 77% | 5% |
 Cincinnati | 0–0 | 18 | 8.8 | 1% | 1% | 12% | 49% | 2% |
 TCU | 0–0 | 18 | 8.8 | 1% | 1% | 12% | 50% | 2% |
 Baylor | 0–0 | 18 | 8.7 | 1% | 1% | 11% | 48% | 2% |
 UCF | 0–0 | 18 | 7.8 | <1% | <1% | 5% | 30% | 1% |
 West Virginia | 0–0 | 18 | 7.8 | <1% | <1% | 5% | 30% | 1% |
 Colorado | 0–0 | 18 | 6.8 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 16% | <1% |
 Oklahoma State | 0–0 | 18 | 6.9 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 17% | <1% |
 Arizona State | 0–0 | 18 | 6.7 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 15% | <1% |
 Kansas State | 0–0 | 18 | 6.1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 9% | <1% |
 Utah | 0–0 | 18 | 5.5 | <1% | — | <1% | 5% | <1% |
A double bye is a top-four seed, a bye a top-eight seed. "Clinched" and "out" appear only when nothing left to play can change them, however every tie would break; everything else is a chance. From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the conference season, each seeded with the full Big 12 procedure and then played through the bracket. Games are drawn from this site's own rating of every Division I team, fitted to every score this season (last fitted 2026-10-20): a team's edge in points, plus 3.0 for the home floor, against an 11.0-point spread of results. Early in the season the rating leans on last season's, pulled toward average, until a team has played about ten games.
Every seed, every team
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 39 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Iowa State | 26 | 24 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| Houston | 20 | 21 | 19 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Texas Tech | 6 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kansas | 4 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| BYU | 3 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| TCU | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Cincinnati | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Baylor | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| UCF | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 4 | |
| West Virginia | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | |
| Oklahoma State | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | |||
| Colorado | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | ||
| Arizona State | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | ||
| Kansas State | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 20 | ||||
| Utah | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 20 | 30 |
The chance, in percent, of each team finishing at each seed, ordered by the average seed. A blank cell is under half a percent.