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Championship race

66

Chaos Index: Chaotic

0 is a decided race, 100 is a sixteen-way pileup

Built from three parts, each 0 to 1: race entropy 0.48, tie tangle 0.88, still alive 1.00

Texas Tech55.8%3–0, 6 left · 7.5 exp conf wins

BYU51.0%3–0, 6 left · 7.3 exp conf wins

Utah48.9%3–0, 6 left · 7.3 exp conf wins

Houston23.0%3–1, 5 left · 6.4 exp conf wins

Arizona9.0%2–1, 6 left · 5.4 exp conf wins

Oklahoma State6.4%2–1, 6 left · 5.6 exp conf wins

Baylor3.3%2–1, 6 left · 4.6 exp conf wins

TCU1.1%1–2, 6 left · 4.0 exp conf wins

UCF0.5%1–2, 6 left · 4.3 exp conf wins

Kansas State0.4%1–2, 6 left · 4.3 exp conf wins

Iowa State0.3%1–2, 6 left · 3.5 exp conf wins

Cincinnati0.2%1–2, 6 left · 2.8 exp conf wins

Arizona State<0.1%1–2, 6 left · 2.8 exp conf wins

Kansas<0.1%0–3, 6 left · 2.4 exp conf wins

West Virginia0%1–3, 5 left · 2.0 exp conf wins

Colorado0%0–3, 6 left · 1.8 exp conf wins

The percentage is the chance of reaching the championship game, not of winning it or of finishing first. Two teams get there, so these add up to about 200%. Clinch/elimination statuses are proven by strict win-count arithmetic — no tiebreaker can undo them. Exhaustive scenario math unlocks when the remaining schedule becomes enumerable. Percentages are championship-game odds from 40,000 season simulations (win probabilities from an ensemble of Big12ology (2026), Elo (2026), FPI (2026), SP+ (2026), SRS (2026)); proofs override odds. Reflects real results only — what-if picks don't change it.

Games that matter · week 8

Houston at UtahSat, Oct 2445

If Utah wins

Utah61%▲12

Houston9%▼14

BYU53%▲2

Texas Tech55%▼1

Arizona9%—

If Houston wins

Utah22%▼27

Houston50%▲27

BYU48%▼3

Texas Tech58%▲3

Arizona8%▼1

BYU at UCFSat, Oct 2430

If UCF wins

UCF1%▲1

BYU30%▼21

Houston29%▲6

Texas Tech61%▲6

Utah52%▲4

If BYU wins

UCF0%▼1

BYU60%▲9

Houston20%▼3

Texas Tech53%▼3

Utah47%▼1

Texas Tech at CincinnatiSat, Oct 2430

If Cincinnati wins

Cincinnati0%—

Texas Tech33%▼23

BYU59%▲8

Utah54%▲5

Houston27%▲4

If Texas Tech wins

Cincinnati0%—

Texas Tech62%▲7

BYU49%▼2

Utah47%▼2

Houston22%▼1

Iowa State at ArizonaSat, Oct 248

If Arizona wins

Arizona11%▲2

Iowa State0%—

Utah48%—

Houston23%—

BYU51%—

If Iowa State wins

Arizona2%▼7

Iowa State1%—

Utah50%▲1

Houston24%▲1

BYU52%▲1

Colorado at Oklahoma StateSat, Oct 246

If Oklahoma State wins

Oklahoma State7%▲1

Colorado0%—

Utah49%—

BYU51%—

Texas Tech56%—

If Colorado wins

Oklahoma State1%▼5

Colorado0%—

Utah50%▲2

BYU52%▲1

Texas Tech57%▲1

Baylor at KansasSat, Oct 244

If Kansas wins

Kansas0%—

Baylor1%▼2

Utah50%▲1

If Baylor wins

Kansas0%—

Baylor5%▲1

Utah48%▼1

West Virginia at TCUSat, Oct 242

If TCU wins

TCU1%—

West Virginia0%—

Houston23%—

If West Virginia wins

TCU0%▼1

West Virginia0%—

Houston24%▲1

Kansas State at Arizona StateSat, Oct 242

If Arizona State wins

Arizona State0%—

Kansas State0%—

Houston22%▼1

If Kansas State wins

Arizona State0%—

Kansas State1%—

Houston24%▲1

Two teams reach the championship game — think of that as two berths. The rest of the season is played out ten thousand times; change who wins one game and different teams end up in those berths. The number beside each game is how many points of a berth change hands on it: 100 points is a whole berth, 0 would mean the result decides nothing. Percentages are how often that team reaches the title game across those simulated seasons, and the arrow is the move from where they stand today. Under the rule in each box are the teams that are not playing but whose own chance that result moves by a point or more — same three things, read the same way. From the same simulations as the race card. 100 = a full berth's worth of probability moves on this game.

Model scorecard

Each system's favorite as it stood before kickoff, from the week's forecast record, against the result; Vegas is the market's line in the same record. Games the system did not rate both sides of are skipped.