Arizona at 
BYUThe venue
Ten seasons at this venue for this two-week window — a fact about the place, not a forecast for the day.
What the models make it
Predicted margin in points, each system carrying its own home-field bump. The year under a name is the season those ratings come from. The market row is the spread as it stands, via collegefootballdata.com. Where that is last season, the rating is regressed toward the mean for how wrong a rating can be about a team this early.
What it does to the race
BYU32%▲5Arizona7%▼6
Texas Tech57%—
Kansas State13%▼1BYU13%▼13Arizona20%▲7Texas Tech59%▲2Kansas State14%▲1BYU38%+6Arizona5%−2BYU8%−6Arizona27%+7Two teams reach the championship game — think of that as two berths. The rest of the season is played out ten thousand times with this result set and the season played around it; the percentages are how often each team ends up in a berth, and the arrow is the move from where they stand today. 100 points is a whole berth changing hands. Under the rule in each box are the teams that are not playing but whose own chance the result moves by a point or more.
The second pair of boxes is those same two results read the other way. The first asks what the result DOES, holding fixed everything the model believes about these teams. The second asks what this page will actually say afterwards, which is more — because a win is not only an event, it is evidence. Beating a team rated this highly is a reason to think better of the winner, and a team thought better of wins more of what it plays next. The signed figure is that difference: what the game teaches, as against what it decides. It shrinks as the ratings settle, and by November there is little enough left that these boxes stop appearing.
From the same simulations the race card runs. 100 means a full berth's worth of probability moves on this result. Each pair is that team's chance in the two futures, not a move from where it stands now — today's number already contains both, weighted by who is likely to win.
The series
BYU 2–0 Arizona as conference opponents since 2011.
If these two finish level in the standings, step (a) of the tiebreaker is head-to-head — which is this game. It is the first thing that separates them, before any of the six steps below it are read.