Arizona Wildcats
5-1 overall · 2-1 Big 12 · 5th in the standings
Title-game odds from 40,000 season simulations on the blend of 5 rating systems, the same run behind The Race. The sparkline is the number as it was published each week.
The schedule
Northern Arizona 7 
Northern Illinois 17 
Washington State 24 Every game, conference and not. Played games carry the model's line and the market's as they stood before kickoff, from the week's forecast record, against the result. Unplayed games carry the blend and the market as of this build.
What matters next
ARIZ's own games
| Game | if ARIZ wins | if ARIZ loses | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 9 | Arizona at  Texas Tech | 26% | 2.4% | +24 |
| Wk 11 |  Utah at Arizona | 20% | 1.7% | +18 |
| Wk 12 | Arizona at  Kansas State | 15% | 2.6% | +12 |
| Wk 10 |  TCU at Arizona | 13% | 1.6% | +12 |
| Wk 8 |  Iowa State at Arizona | 11% | 1.8% | +10 |
| Wk 13 |  Arizona State at Arizona | 10% | 1.6% | +9 |
Everyone else's
| Game | home wins | away wins | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 8 | Texas Tech at  Cincinnati | 12% | 8.0% | +4 |
| Wk 10 |  West Virginia at Texas Tech | 8.7% | 13% | -4 |
| Wk 9 | Arizona State at  BYU | 8.7% | 12% | -3 |
| Wk 13 | TCU at Texas Tech | 8.2% | 11% | -3 |
| Wk 9 | Utah at Cincinnati | 11% | 8.3% | +3 |
| Wk 13 | Cincinnati at BYU | 8.6% | 11% | -3 |
Arizona's title-game odds under each result, in points of probability, read off the seasons in the baseline run where it went that way: what the board would say on Sunday. A game's own preview shows the other reading, the result asserted and the season run around it.
The Nerds on ARIZ
| System | rating (pts) | in the Big 12 | picking ARIZ games |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ (2026) | +12.4 | 4 of 16 | 5-0 |
| FPI (2026) | +8.1 | 5 of 16 | 5-0 |
| Elo (2026) | +7.7 | 4 of 16 | 5-0 |
| SRS (2026) | +9.9 | 6 of 16 | 6-0 |
| Big12ology (2026) | +5.2 | 8 of 16 | 3-1 |
| Vegas | — | — | 6-0 |
Points better than an average FBS team, each system on its own scale. The record is each system's favorite in Arizona's games this season, as it stood before kickoff. See The Model.
The draw and the rotation
Expected conference wins on this slate: 5.3, -0.08 against the same team on the average draw, the 7th hardest of 16. Hardest slate for ARIZ would be TCU's (4.9), easiest Kansas State's (5.9).
Misses this season:
UCF last met 2024
Baylor last met 2025
Colorado last met 2025
Houston last met 2025
Kansas last met 2025
Oklahoma State last met 2025
From The Draw and The Rotation.
Home gates
- Wk 1 vs Northern Arizona: 40,129 (95°F)
- Wk 3 vs Northern Illinois: 40,413 (89°F)
- Wk 5 vs Cincinnati: 43,760 (81°F)
| Season | home games | average | best |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7 | 46,747 | 50,724 |
| 2025 | 7 | 41,782 | 47,960 |
| 2026 | 3 | 41,434 | 43,760 |
From Attendance.