BYU Cougars
6-0 overall · 3-0 Big 12 · 1st in the standings
Title-game odds from 40,000 season simulations on the blend of 5 rating systems, the same run behind The Race. The sparkline is the number as it was published each week.
The schedule
Utah Tech 7 
Colorado State 23 
Notre Dame 24 Every game, conference and not. Played games carry the model's line and the market's as they stood before kickoff, from the week's forecast record, against the result. Unplayed games carry the blend and the market as of this build.
What matters next
BYU's own games
| Game | if BYU wins | if BYU loses | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 10 | BYU at  Utah | 81% | 33% | +48 |
| Wk 11 |  Baylor at BYU | 60% | 22% | +38 |
| Wk 8 | BYU at  UCF | 62% | 26% | +36 |
| Wk 9 |  Arizona State at BYU | 54% | 19% | +35 |
| Wk 13 |  Cincinnati at BYU | 56% | 21% | +35 |
| Wk 12 | BYU at  Kansas | 60% | 26% | +34 |
Everyone else's
| Game | home wins | away wins | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 13 |  TCU at  Texas Tech | 48% | 61% | -12 |
| Wk 8 | Texas Tech at Cincinnati | 59% | 49% | +11 |
| Wk 12 | Texas Tech at Baylor | 57% | 47% | +10 |
| Wk 9 |  Arizona at Texas Tech | 48% | 58% | -9 |
| Wk 10 |  West Virginia at Texas Tech | 50% | 60% | -9 |
| Wk 12 | Utah at TCU | 57% | 48% | +9 |
BYU's title-game odds under each result, in points of probability, read off the seasons in the baseline run where it went that way: what the board would say on Sunday. A game's own preview shows the other reading, the result asserted and the season run around it.
The Nerds on BYU
| System | rating (pts) | in the Big 12 | picking BYU games |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ (2026) | +18.7 | 3 of 16 | 4-1 |
| FPI (2026) | +15.0 | 3 of 16 | 4-1 |
| Elo (2026) | +8.5 | 3 of 16 | 4-1 |
| SRS (2026) | +15.7 | 2 of 16 | 5-1 |
| Big12ology (2026) | +10.3 | 2 of 16 | 3-1 |
| Vegas | — | — | 5-1 |
Points better than an average FBS team, each system on its own scale. The record is each system's favorite in BYU's games this season, as it stood before kickoff. See The Model.
The draw and the rotation
Expected conference wins on this slate: 6.6, +0.11 against the same team on the average draw, the 12th hardest of 16. Hardest slate for BYU would be West Virginia's (6.0), easiest UCF's (6.9).
Misses this season:
Houston last met 2024
Kansas State last met 2024
Oklahoma State last met 2024
Colorado last met 2025- Texas Tech last met 2025
- West Virginia last met 2025
From The Draw and The Rotation.
Home gates
- Wk 1 vs Utah Tech: 64,077 (83°F)
- Wk 2 vs Arizona: 64,409 (84°F)
- Wk 6 vs Iowa State: 64,632 (70°F)
- Wk 7 vs Notre Dame: 65,179 (65°F)
| Season | home games | average | best |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 62,848 | 64,420 |
| 2025 | 6 | 63,789 | 64,794 |
| 2026 | 4 | 64,574 | 65,179 |
From Attendance.