Championship race
BYU100%8–1, 0 left
Texas Tech100%8–1, 0 leftEliminated: Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, Houston, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU, Baylor, Kansas, UCF, West Virginia, Colorado, Oklahoma State
The percentage is the chance of reaching the championship game, not of winning it or of finishing first. Two teams get there, so these add up to about 200%. Clinch/elimination statuses are proven across all 1 remaining outcomes with the full official tiebreaker procedure; scenario lines are for the upcoming week's games. Percentages are championship-game odds from 10,000 season simulations (win probabilities from an ensemble of Elo (2025), SP+ (2025), SRS (2025)); proofs override odds. Reflects real results only — what-if picks don't change it.
Model scorecard
| Model | Favorites | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ (2025) | 85–18 | 0.825 |
| SRS (2025) | 95–23 | 0.805 |
| Vegas (closing line) | 94–25 | 0.790 |
| Elo (2025) | 82–22 | 0.788 |
Each system's favorites in completed games involving Big 12 teams (both sides rated; FCS games skipped). Judged against the market's closing-line favorites.
These models are not beating the market. Every rating here is that season's final published number, fitted on the games it is being graded against — it knows how they ended. Vegas's number was locked at kickoff, before any of them were played. A model finishing above the closing line in this table is measuring hindsight, not skill. (SP+, SRS do exactly that here.) FPI is absent: no ratings were kept for this season.