Big 12 Tiebreaker Tracker 202620252024

Championship race

72

Chaos Index: Chaotic

0 is a decided race, 100 is a sixteen-way pileup

Built from three parts, each 0 to 1: race entropy 0.53, tie tangle 1.00, still alive 1.00

Utah51.8%2–0, 7 left · 7.4 exp conf wins

Texas Tech50.7%2–0, 7 left · 7.3 exp conf wins

BYU45.5%3–0, 6 left · 7.1 exp conf wins

Houston19.1%2–1, 6 left · 6.2 exp conf wins

Oklahoma State11.4%2–0, 7 left · 5.8 exp conf wins

Baylor10.7%2–0, 7 left · 5.4 exp conf wins

Arizona8.0%2–1, 6 left · 5.4 exp conf wins

Cincinnati0.6%1–1, 7 left · 3.3 exp conf wins

UCF0.6%1–2, 6 left · 4.3 exp conf wins

TCU0.4%0–2, 7 left · 3.2 exp conf wins

Iowa State0.4%1–2, 6 left · 3.5 exp conf wins

Arizona State0.3%1–1, 7 left · 3.1 exp conf wins

Kansas State0.2%0–2, 7 left · 3.8 exp conf wins

Kansas0.2%0–2, 7 left · 2.9 exp conf wins

Colorado<0.1%0–2, 7 left · 1.7 exp conf wins

West Virginia0%0–3, 6 left · 1.5 exp conf wins

The percentage is the chance of reaching the championship game, not of winning it or of finishing first. Two teams get there, so these add up to about 200%. Clinch/elimination statuses are proven by strict win-count arithmetic — no tiebreaker can undo them. Exhaustive scenario math unlocks when the remaining schedule becomes enumerable. Percentages are championship-game odds from 40,000 season simulations (win probabilities from an ensemble of Big12ology (2026), Elo (2026), FPI (2026), SP+ (2026), SRS (2026)); proofs override odds. Reflects real results only — what-if picks don't change it.

Games that matter · week 7

Arizona State at Texas TechSat, Oct 1726

If Texas Tech wins

Texas Tech53%▲2

Arizona State0%—

BYU45%▼1

Utah51%▼1

Houston19%—

If Arizona State wins

Texas Tech27%▼24

Arizona State1%▲1

BYU53%▲8

Utah57%▲5

Houston23%▲4

Utah at ColoradoSat, Oct 1724

If Colorado wins

Colorado0%—

Utah30%▼22

Texas Tech58%▲7

Houston23%▲4

BYU49%▲3

If Utah wins

Colorado0%—

Utah54%▲2

Texas Tech50%▼1

Houston19%—

BYU45%—

Oklahoma State at HoustonSat, Oct 1720

If Houston wins

Houston24%▲5

Oklahoma State6%▼5

BYU46%—

Utah52%▲1

If Oklahoma State wins

Houston5%▼14

Oklahoma State24%▲12

BYU47%▲1

Utah51%▼1

TCU at BaylorSat, Oct 179

If Baylor wins

Baylor13%▲2

TCU0%—

Utah51%▼1

Texas Tech50%—

BYU45%—

If TCU wins

Baylor4%▼7

TCU1%—

Utah53%▲2

Texas Tech52%▲1

BYU47%▲1

Kansas at Kansas StateSat, Oct 173

If Kansas State wins

Kansas State0%—

Kansas0%—

Houston20%▲1

BYU45%—

If Kansas wins

Kansas State0%—

Kansas0%—

Houston18%▼1

BYU46%▲1

Cincinnati at West VirginiaSat, Oct 172

If West Virginia wins

West Virginia0%—

Cincinnati0%▼1

If Cincinnati wins

West Virginia0%—

Cincinnati1%—

Two teams reach the championship game — think of that as two berths. The rest of the season is played out ten thousand times; change who wins one game and different teams end up in those berths. The number beside each game is how many points of a berth change hands on it: 100 points is a whole berth, 0 would mean the result decides nothing. Percentages are how often that team reaches the title game across those simulated seasons, and the arrow is the move from where they stand today. Under the rule in each box are the teams that are not playing but whose own chance that result moves by a point or more — same three things, read the same way. From the same simulations as the race card. 100 = a full berth's worth of probability moves on this game.

Model scorecard

Each system's favorite as it stood before kickoff, from the week's forecast record, against the result; Vegas is the market's line in the same record. Games the system did not rate both sides of are skipped.