Big 12 Tiebreaker Tracker 202620252024

Championship race

88

Chaos Index: Pandemonium

0 is a decided race, 100 is a sixteen-way pileup

Built from three parts, each 0 to 1: race entropy 0.81, tie tangle 1.00, still alive 1.00

Texas Tech56.6%0–0, 9 left · 7.3 exp conf wins

BYU26.6%0–0, 9 left · 5.9 exp conf wins

Utah25.0%0–0, 9 left · 5.9 exp conf wins

Kansas State13.4%0–0, 9 left · 5.0 exp conf wins

Arizona13.0%0–0, 9 left · 4.8 exp conf wins

TCU11.7%0–0, 9 left · 4.6 exp conf wins

Houston9.5%0–0, 9 left · 4.6 exp conf wins

Arizona State7.4%0–0, 9 left · 4.3 exp conf wins

Iowa State6.1%0–0, 9 left · 4.1 exp conf wins

Baylor5.9%0–0, 9 left · 3.9 exp conf wins

Kansas5.8%0–0, 9 left · 4.0 exp conf wins

UCF5.7%0–0, 9 left · 3.9 exp conf wins

Cincinnati5.0%0–0, 9 left · 3.6 exp conf wins

Colorado4.3%0–0, 9 left · 3.5 exp conf wins

Oklahoma State3.1%0–0, 9 left · 3.3 exp conf wins

West Virginia2.2%0–0, 9 left · 3.1 exp conf wins

The percentage is the chance of reaching the championship game, not of winning it or of finishing first. Two teams get there, so these add up to about 200%. Clinch/elimination statuses are proven by strict win-count arithmetic — no tiebreaker can undo them. Exhaustive scenario math unlocks when the remaining schedule becomes enumerable. Percentages are championship-game odds from 10,000 season simulations (win probabilities from an ensemble of Elo (2025), FPI (2026), SP+ (2026), SRS (2025)); proofs override odds. Elo, SRS have not published for this season yet, so those ratings are last season's finals, regressed toward the mean. Simulations also draw each team's true strength rather than trusting its rating exactly, which is why early-season odds sit closer to even than the ratings alone would suggest. Reflects real results only — what-if picks don't change it.

Games that matter · week 2

Arizona at BYUSat, Sep 1219

If BYU wins

BYU32%▲5

Arizona7%▼6

Texas Tech57%—

Kansas State13%▼1

If Arizona wins

BYU13%▼13

Arizona20%▲7

Texas Tech59%▲2

Kansas State14%▲1

Two teams reach the championship game — think of that as two berths. The rest of the season is played out ten thousand times; change who wins one game and different teams end up in those berths. The number beside each game is how many points of a berth change hands on it: 100 points is a whole berth, 0 would mean the result decides nothing. Percentages are how often that team reaches the title game across those simulated seasons, and the arrow is the move from where they stand today. Under the rule in each box are the teams that are not playing but whose own chance that result moves by a point or more — same three things, read the same way. From the same simulations as the race card. 100 = a full berth's worth of probability moves on this game.

Model scorecard

Which rating system picks Big 12 games best? The scorecard starts counting with the first kickoff.