Big 12 Tiebreaker Tracker 202620252024

Championship race

75

Chaos Index: Pandemonium

0 is a decided race, 100 is a sixteen-way pileup

Built from three parts, each 0 to 1: race entropy 0.59, tie tangle 1.00, still alive 1.00

Utah54.7%1–0, 8 left · 7.3 exp conf wins

Texas Tech54.5%2–0, 7 left · 7.3 exp conf wins

BYU36.9%2–0, 7 left · 6.7 exp conf wins

Baylor13.0%2–0, 7 left · 5.4 exp conf wins

Houston10.9%1–1, 7 left · 5.3 exp conf wins

Oklahoma State8.3%1–0, 8 left · 5.1 exp conf wins

UCF7.2%1–1, 7 left · 5.2 exp conf wins

Kansas State5.3%0–1, 8 left · 4.9 exp conf wins

Arizona4.8%1–1, 7 left · 4.7 exp conf wins

Iowa State1.9%1–1, 7 left · 3.8 exp conf wins

Cincinnati1.1%1–1, 7 left · 3.5 exp conf wins

TCU0.6%0–2, 7 left · 3.1 exp conf wins

Kansas0.6%0–1, 8 left · 2.7 exp conf wins

Arizona State0.3%1–1, 7 left · 3.1 exp conf wins

West Virginia<0.1%0–2, 7 left · 2.2 exp conf wins

Colorado<0.1%0–2, 7 left · 1.6 exp conf wins

The percentage is the chance of reaching the championship game, not of winning it or of finishing first. Two teams get there, so these add up to about 200%. Clinch/elimination statuses are proven by strict win-count arithmetic — no tiebreaker can undo them. Exhaustive scenario math unlocks when the remaining schedule becomes enumerable. Percentages are championship-game odds from 40,000 season simulations (win probabilities from an ensemble of Big12ology (2026), Elo (2026), FPI (2026), SP+ (2026), SRS (2026)); proofs override odds. Reflects real results only — what-if picks don't change it.

Games that matter · week 6

Kansas at UtahSat, Oct 1025

If Utah wins

Utah57%▲3

Kansas0%—

Texas Tech54%▼1

BYU37%—

Baylor13%—

If Kansas wins

Utah33%▼22

Kansas2%▲1

Texas Tech59%▲4

BYU41%▲4

Baylor16%▲3

Iowa State at BYUFri, Oct 923

If BYU wins

BYU42%▲5

Iowa State1%▼1

Texas Tech54%▼1

Utah54%▼1

Houston11%—

If Iowa State wins

BYU19%▼18

Iowa State5%▲3

Texas Tech59%▲4

Utah58%▲4

Houston13%▲2

Houston at Kansas StateSat, Oct 1013

If Kansas State wins

Kansas State8%▲3

Houston4%▼7

BYU39%▲2

If Houston wins

Kansas State1%▼4

Houston17%▲6

BYU36%▼1

UCF at Oklahoma StateSat, Oct 1011

If Oklahoma State wins

Oklahoma State12%▲3

UCF2%▼5

If UCF wins

Oklahoma State3%▼5

UCF11%▲4

Arizona at West VirginiaSat, Oct 105

If West Virginia wins

West Virginia0%—

Arizona1%▼3

Texas Tech55%▲1

If Arizona wins

West Virginia0%—

Arizona6%▲2

Texas Tech54%—

Two teams reach the championship game — think of that as two berths. The rest of the season is played out ten thousand times; change who wins one game and different teams end up in those berths. The number beside each game is how many points of a berth change hands on it: 100 points is a whole berth, 0 would mean the result decides nothing. Percentages are how often that team reaches the title game across those simulated seasons, and the arrow is the move from where they stand today. Under the rule in each box are the teams that are not playing but whose own chance that result moves by a point or more — same three things, read the same way. From the same simulations as the race card. 100 = a full berth's worth of probability moves on this game.

Model scorecard

Each system's favorite as it stood before kickoff, from the week's forecast record, against the result; Vegas is the market's line in the same record. Games the system did not rate both sides of are skipped.