Houston Cougars
6-1 overall · 3-1 Big 12 · 4th in the standings
Title-game odds from 40,000 season simulations on the blend of 5 rating systems, the same run behind The Race. The sparkline is the number as it was published each week.
The schedule
Oregon State 20 
Southern 6 
Every game, conference and not. Played games carry the model's line and the market's as they stood before kickoff, from the week's forecast record, against the result. Unplayed games carry the blend and the market as of this build.
What matters next
HOU's own games
| Game | if HOU wins | if HOU loses | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 8 | Houston at  Utah | 54% | 8.2% | +46 |
| Wk 13 |  Baylor at Houston | 30% | 5.7% | +24 |
| Wk 10 |  Cincinnati at Houston | 27% | 4.9% | +22 |
| Wk 12 | Houston at  West Virginia | 28% | 5.9% | +22 |
| Wk 11 | Houston at  Colorado | 27% | 6.0% | +21 |
Everyone else's
| Game | home wins | away wins | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 8 |  BYU at  UCF | 30% | 20% | +10 |
| Wk 13 | Cincinnati at BYU | 22% | 31% | -9 |
| Wk 11 | Baylor at BYU | 21% | 29% | -8 |
| Wk 9 | Utah at Cincinnati | 29% | 21% | +7 |
| Wk 12 | BYU at  Kansas | 28% | 21% | +7 |
| Wk 13 | West Virginia at Utah | 22% | 30% | -7 |
Houston's title-game odds under each result, in points of probability, read off the seasons in the baseline run where it went that way: what the board would say on Sunday. A game's own preview shows the other reading, the result asserted and the season run around it.
The Nerds on HOU
| System | rating (pts) | in the Big 12 | picking HOU games |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ (2026) | +12.4 | 4 of 16 | 5-1 |
| FPI (2026) | +12.4 | 4 of 16 | 6-0 |
| Elo (2026) | +3.6 | 9 of 16 | 5-1 |
| SRS (2026) | +15.2 | 3 of 16 | 6-1 |
| Big12ology (2026) | +13.5 | 1 of 16 | 4-1 |
| Vegas | — | — | 5-1 |
Points better than an average FBS team, each system on its own scale. The record is each system's favorite in Houston's games this season, as it stood before kickoff. See The Model.
The draw and the rotation
Expected conference wins on this slate: 5.9, -0.07 against the same team on the average draw, the 9th hardest of 16. Hardest slate for HOU would be TCU's (5.5), easiest Kansas State's (6.6).
Misses this season:
- BYU last met 2024
Iowa State last met 2024- Kansas last met 2024
Arizona last met 2025
Arizona State last met 2025
TCU last met 2025
From The Draw and The Rotation.
Home gates
- Wk 1 vs Oregon State: 28,742 (84°F)
- Wk 2 vs Southern: 28,936 (89°F)
- Wk 5 vs UCF: 25,593 (83°F)
- Wk 7 vs Oklahoma State: 42,544 (69°F)
| Season | home games | average | best |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 27,423 | 34,166 |
| 2025 | 6 | 32,215 | 42,806 |
| 2026 | 4 | 31,454 | 42,544 |
From Attendance.