West Virginia Mountaineers
3-0 overall · 0-0 Big 12 · tied for 4th in the standings
Title-game odds from 40,000 season simulations on the blend of 5 rating systems, the same run behind The Race. The sparkline is the number as it was published each week.
The schedule
Coastal Carolina 24 
UT Martin 7 
Virginia 27 Every game, conference and not. Played games carry the model's line and the market's as they stood before kickoff, from the week's forecast record, against the result. Unplayed games carry the blend and the market as of this build.
What matters next
WVU's own games
| Game | if WVU wins | if WVU loses | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 10 | West Virginia at  Texas Tech | 7.5% | 0.6% | +7 |
| Wk 13 | West Virginia at  Utah | 7.0% | 0.6% | +6 |
| Wk 8 | West Virginia at  TCU | 3.8% | 0.4% | +3 |
| Wk 5 | West Virginia at  Iowa State | 3.5% | 0.3% | +3 |
| Wk 6 |  Arizona at West Virginia | 3.2% | 0.3% | +3 |
| Wk 12 |  Houston at West Virginia | 3.0% | 0.2% | +3 |
| Wk 7 |  Cincinnati at West Virginia | 2.8% | 0.2% | +3 |
| Wk 11 |  Kansas at West Virginia | 2.4% | 0.3% | +2 |
| Wk 4 |  Oklahoma State at West Virginia | 2.1% | 0.1% | +2 |
Everyone else's
| Game | home wins | away wins | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 4 | Utah at Iowa State | 1.7% | 1.2% | +1 |
| Wk 6 | Kansas at Utah | 1.3% | 1.8% | -1 |
West Virginia's title-game odds under each result, in points of probability, read off the seasons in the baseline run where it went that way: what the board would say on Sunday. A game's own preview shows the other reading, the result asserted and the season run around it.
The Nerds on WVU
| System | rating (pts) | in the Big 12 | picking WVU games |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ (2026) | +0.2 | 16 of 16 | 1-1 |
| FPI (2026) | -0.9 | 14 of 16 | 1-1 |
| Elo (2026) | -5.1 | 15 of 16 | 1-1 |
| SRS (2025) regressed | -2.4 | 15 of 16 | 2-1 |
| Big12ology (2025) regressed | -3.4 | 14 of 16 | 0-1 |
| Vegas | — | — | 1-1 |
Points better than an average FBS team, each system on its own scale. The record is each system's favorite in West Virginia's games this season, as it stood before kickoff. See The Model.
The draw and the rotation
Expected conference wins on this slate: 3.0, +0.04 against the same team on the average draw, the 9th hardest of 16. Hardest slate for WVU would be Cincinnati's (2.3), easiest UCF's (3.4).
Misses this season:
Baylor last met 2024
Kansas State last met 2024
Arizona State last met 2025
BYU last met 2025
Colorado last met 2025
UCF last met 2025
From The Draw and The Rotation.
Home gates
- Wk 1 vs Coastal Carolina: 54,158 (75°F)
- Wk 2 vs UT Martin: 47,049 (77°F)
| Season | home games | average | best |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7 | 52,459 | 62,084 |
| 2025 | 6 | 54,506 | 62,108 |
| 2026 | 2 | 50,604 | 54,158 |
From Attendance.
In the Big 12
| Season | conf. | overall | finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 4-5 | 7-5 | 8 | |
| 2013 | 2-7 | 4-8 | 7 | |
| 2014 | 5-4 | 7-5 | 5 | |
| 2015 | 4-5 | 7-5 | 5 | |
| 2016 | 7-2 | 10-2 | 3 | |
| 2017 | 5-4 | 7-5 | 5 | |
| 2018 | 6-3 | 8-3 | 4 | |
| 2019 | 3-6 | 5-7 | 7 | |
| 2021 | 4-5 | 6-6 | 6 | |
| 2022 | 3-6 | 5-7 | 9 | |
| 2023 | 6-3 | 8-4 | 6 | |
| 2024 | 5-4 | 6-6 | 9 | |
| 2025 | 2-7 | 4-8 | 14 |
Regular season, as the tracker keeps it, with ties left standing. Seasons this team was not in the conference are not listed.