Cincinnati Bearcats
3-0 overall · 0-0 Big 12 · tied for 4th in the standings
Title-game odds from 40,000 season simulations on the blend of 5 rating systems, the same run behind The Race. The sparkline is the number as it was published each week.
The schedule
Boston College 15 
Western Carolina 10 
Miami (OH) 31 Every game, conference and not. Played games carry the model's line and the market's as they stood before kickoff, from the week's forecast record, against the result. Unplayed games carry the blend and the market as of this build.
What matters next
CIN's own games
| Game | if CIN wins | if CIN loses | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 13 | Cincinnati at  BYU | 15% | 2.0% | +12 |
| Wk 8 |  Texas Tech at Cincinnati | 14% | 1.8% | +12 |
| Wk 9 |  Utah at Cincinnati | 13% | 1.6% | +11 |
| Wk 5 | Cincinnati at  Arizona | 11% | 1.8% | +10 |
| Wk 10 | Cincinnati at  Houston | 11% | 1.7% | +9 |
| Wk 11 | Cincinnati at  Iowa State | 10% | 1.6% | +8 |
| Wk 4 |  Kansas State at Cincinnati | 9.5% | 1.4% | +8 |
| Wk 7 | Cincinnati at  West Virginia | 8.2% | 1.5% | +7 |
| Wk 12 |  Colorado at Cincinnati | 7.3% | 1.1% | +6 |
Everyone else's
| Game | home wins | away wins | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 5 | Texas Tech at Colorado | 6.6% | 5.0% | +2 |
| Wk 11 | Texas Tech at  Oklahoma State | 6.5% | 5.1% | +1 |
| Wk 7 |  Arizona State at Texas Tech | 5.1% | 6.3% | -1 |
| Wk 11 |  Baylor at BYU | 5.0% | 6.2% | -1 |
| Wk 10 | West Virginia at Texas Tech | 5.2% | 6.3% | -1 |
| Wk 13 |  TCU at Texas Tech | 5.1% | 6.2% | -1 |
Cincinnati's title-game odds under each result, in points of probability, read off the seasons in the baseline run where it went that way: what the board would say on Sunday. A game's own preview shows the other reading, the result asserted and the season run around it.
The Nerds on CIN
| System | rating (pts) | in the Big 12 | picking CIN games |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ (2026) | +4.8 | 9 of 16 | 2-0 |
| FPI (2026) | +6.6 | 6 of 16 | 2-0 |
| Elo (2026) | +0.4 | 10 of 16 | 2-0 |
| SRS (2025) regressed | +1.1 | 11 of 16 | 3-0 |
| Big12ology (2025) regressed | +3.2 | 6 of 16 | 1-0 |
| Vegas | — | — | 2-0 |
Points better than an average FBS team, each system on its own scale. The record is each system's favorite in Cincinnati's games this season, as it stood before kickoff. See The Model.
The draw and the rotation
Expected conference wins on this slate: 3.8, -0.56 against the same team on the average draw, the 1st hardest of 16. Hardest slate for CIN would be Arizona's (3.8), easiest UCF's (4.8).
Misses this season:
- Arizona State last met 2024
- Baylor last met 2025
Kansas last met 2025- Oklahoma State last met 2025
- TCU last met 2025
UCF last met 2025
From The Draw and The Rotation.
Home gates
- Wk 1 vs Boston College: 37,097 (92°F)
- Wk 2 vs Western Carolina: 34,827 (76°F)
- Wk 3 vs Miami (OH): 19,188 (83°F)
| Season | home games | average | best |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 36,615 | 38,007 |
| 2025 | 7 | 36,052 | 38,034 |
| 2026 | 3 | 30,371 | 37,097 |
From Attendance.