Colorado Buffaloes
2-1 overall · 0-0 Big 12 · tied for 4th in the standings
Title-game odds from 40,000 season simulations on the blend of 5 rating systems, the same run behind The Race. The sparkline is the number as it was published each week.
The schedule
Georgia Tech 13 
Weber State 21 
Northwestern 41 Every game, conference and not. Played games carry the model's line and the market's as they stood before kickoff, from the week's forecast record, against the result. Unplayed games carry the blend and the market as of this build.
What matters next
COLO's own games
| Game | if COLO wins | if COLO loses | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 5 |  Texas Tech at Colorado | 9.2% | 1.0% | +8 |
| Wk 7 |  Utah at Colorado | 8.5% | 0.9% | +8 |
| Wk 12 | Colorado at  Cincinnati | 6.7% | 0.7% | +6 |
| Wk 10 | Colorado at  Arizona State | 6.4% | 0.8% | +6 |
| Wk 4 | Colorado at  Baylor | 6.1% | 0.8% | +5 |
| Wk 9 |  Kansas State at Colorado | 6.0% | 0.7% | +5 |
| Wk 11 |  Houston at Colorado | 5.3% | 0.7% | +5 |
| Wk 13 |  UCF at Colorado | 4.6% | 0.5% | +4 |
| Wk 8 | Colorado at  Oklahoma State | 4.6% | 0.6% | +4 |
Everyone else's
| Game | home wins | away wins | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 10 |  West Virginia at Texas Tech | 2.5% | 3.7% | -1 |
| Wk 11 | Texas Tech at Oklahoma State | 3.5% | 2.5% | +1 |
| Wk 6 |  Kansas at Utah | 2.5% | 3.3% | -1 |
| Wk 13 |  TCU at Texas Tech | 2.5% | 3.1% | -1 |
| Wk 12 |  BYU at Kansas | 3.1% | 2.4% | +1 |
| Wk 12 | Texas Tech at Baylor | 3.1% | 2.5% | +1 |
Colorado's title-game odds under each result, in points of probability, read off the seasons in the baseline run where it went that way: what the board would say on Sunday. A game's own preview shows the other reading, the result asserted and the season run around it.
The Nerds on COLO
| System | rating (pts) | in the Big 12 | picking COLO games |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ (2026) | +0.9 | 14 of 16 | 1-1 |
| FPI (2026) | +2.5 | 12 of 16 | 1-1 |
| Elo (2026) | -3.7 | 14 of 16 | 1-1 |
| SRS (2025) regressed | -2.2 | 14 of 16 | 2-1 |
| Big12ology (2025) regressed | -4.0 | 15 of 16 | 1-0 |
| Vegas | — | — | 1-1 |
Points better than an average FBS team, each system on its own scale. The record is each system's favorite in Colorado's games this season, as it stood before kickoff. See The Model.
The draw and the rotation
Expected conference wins on this slate: 3.1, -0.08 against the same team on the average draw, the 5th hardest of 16. Hardest slate for COLO would be Cincinnati's (2.6), easiest UCF's (3.6).
Misses this season:
- Kansas last met 2024
Arizona last met 2025- BYU last met 2025
Iowa State last met 2025- TCU last met 2025
- West Virginia last met 2025
From The Draw and The Rotation.
Home gates
- Wk 2 vs Weber State: 49,363 (70°F)
| Season | home games | average | best |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 52,514 | 54,646 |
| 2025 | 7 | 50,469 | 53,442 |
| 2026 | 1 | 49,363 | 49,363 |
From Attendance.