Arizona State Sun Devils
2-1 overall · 1-0 Big 12 · tied for 1st in the standings
Title-game odds from 40,000 season simulations on the blend of 5 rating systems, the same run behind The Race. The sparkline is the number as it was published each week.
The schedule
Morgan State 7 
Texas A&M 48 
Hawai'i Every game, conference and not. Played games carry the model's line and the market's as they stood before kickoff, from the week's forecast record, against the result. Unplayed games carry the blend and the market as of this build.
What matters next
ASU's own games
| Game | if ASU wins | if ASU loses | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 | Arizona State at  Texas Tech | 25% | 3.8% | +21 |
| Wk 9 | Arizona State at  BYU | 21% | 2.9% | +18 |
| Wk 13 | Arizona State at  Arizona | 16% | 2.8% | +13 |
| Wk 8 |  Kansas State at Arizona State | 14% | 1.9% | +12 |
| Wk 11 | Arizona State at  UCF | 13% | 2.5% | +10 |
| Wk 5 |  Baylor at Arizona State | 11% | 1.9% | +9 |
| Wk 10 |  Colorado at Arizona State | 10% | 1.6% | +9 |
| Wk 12 |  Oklahoma State at Arizona State | 10% | 1.4% | +8 |
Everyone else's
| Game | home wins | away wins | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 11 | Texas Tech at Oklahoma State | 10% | 7.1% | +3 |
| Wk 10 |  West Virginia at Texas Tech | 7.2% | 10% | -2 |
| Wk 8 | Texas Tech at  Cincinnati | 9.0% | 6.9% | +2 |
| Wk 12 | BYU at  Kansas | 8.8% | 6.9% | +2 |
| Wk 6 | Kansas at  Utah | 7.2% | 9.1% | -2 |
| Wk 12 | Texas Tech at Baylor | 8.9% | 7.0% | +2 |
Arizona State's title-game odds under each result, in points of probability, read off the seasons in the baseline run where it went that way: what the board would say on Sunday. A game's own preview shows the other reading, the result asserted and the season run around it.
The Nerds on ASU
| System | rating (pts) | in the Big 12 | picking ASU games |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ (2026) | +5.0 | 8 of 16 | 2-0 |
| FPI (2026) | +2.9 | 10 of 16 | 2-0 |
| Elo (2026) | +1.0 | 8 of 16 | 2-0 |
| SRS (2025) regressed | +3.0 | 9 of 16 | 3-0 |
| Big12ology (2025) regressed | +1.5 | 9 of 16 | 1-0 |
| Vegas | — | — | 3-0 |
Points better than an average FBS team, each system on its own scale. The record is each system's favorite in Arizona State's games this season, as it stood before kickoff. See The Model.
The draw and the rotation
Expected conference wins on this slate: 4.2, -0.02 against the same team on the average draw, the 6th hardest of 16. Hardest slate for ASU would be Cincinnati's (3.6), easiest UCF's (4.7).
Misses this season:
- Cincinnati last met 2024
Houston last met 2025
Iowa State last met 2025
TCU last met 2025- Utah last met 2025
- West Virginia last met 2025
From The Draw and The Rotation.
Home gates
- Wk 1 vs Morgan State: 54,004 (98°F)
| Season | home games | average | best |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 48,984 | 55,400 |
| 2025 | 7 | 54,444 | 56,759 |
| 2026 | 1 | 54,004 | 54,004 |
From Attendance.