Oklahoma State Cowboys
2-1 overall · 0-0 Big 12 · tied for 4th in the standings
Title-game odds from 40,000 season simulations on the blend of 5 rating systems, the same run behind The Race. The sparkline is the number as it was published each week.
The schedule
Tulsa 24 
Oregon 31 
Murray State 0 Every game, conference and not. Played games carry the model's line and the market's as they stood before kickoff, from the week's forecast record, against the result. Unplayed games carry the blend and the market as of this build.
What matters next
OKST's own games
| Game | if OKST wins | if OKST loses | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 11 |  Texas Tech at Oklahoma State | 5.4% | 0.3% | +5 |
| Wk 10 | Oklahoma State at  Kansas State | 4.0% | 0.4% | +4 |
| Wk 7 | Oklahoma State at  Houston | 3.3% | 0.4% | +3 |
| Wk 12 | Oklahoma State at  Arizona State | 3.2% | 0.3% | +3 |
| Wk 9 | Oklahoma State at  Iowa State | 3.2% | 0.3% | +3 |
| Wk 4 | Oklahoma State at  West Virginia | 2.5% | 0.2% | +2 |
| Wk 13 |  Kansas at Oklahoma State | 2.2% | 0.2% | +2 |
| Wk 6 |  UCF at Oklahoma State | 2.1% | 0.2% | +2 |
| Wk 8 |  Colorado at Oklahoma State | 2.0% | 0.2% | +2 |
Oklahoma State's title-game odds under each result, in points of probability, read off the seasons in the baseline run where it went that way: what the board would say on Sunday. A game's own preview shows the other reading, the result asserted and the season run around it.
The Nerds on OKST
| System | rating (pts) | in the Big 12 | picking OKST games |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ (2026) | +3.9 | 11 of 16 | 0-2 |
| FPI (2026) | +1.0 | 13 of 16 | 0-2 |
| Elo (2026) | -8.5 | 16 of 16 | 1-1 |
| SRS (2025) regressed | -8.1 | 16 of 16 | 2-1 |
| Big12ology (2025) regressed | -9.7 | 16 of 16 | 0-0 |
| Vegas | — | — | 1-2 |
Points better than an average FBS team, each system on its own scale. The record is each system's favorite in Oklahoma State's games this season, as it stood before kickoff. See The Model.
The draw and the rotation
Expected conference wins on this slate: 2.7, +0.19 against the same team on the average draw, the 13th hardest of 16. Hardest slate for OKST would be Cincinnati's (2.1), easiest UCF's (2.8).
Misses this season:
BYU last met 2024
TCU last met 2024
Utah last met 2024
Arizona last met 2025
Baylor last met 2025
Cincinnati last met 2025
From The Draw and The Rotation.
Home gates
- Wk 2 vs Oregon: 51,035 (83°F)
- Wk 3 vs Murray State: 52,168 (91°F)
| Season | home games | average | best |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 52,202 | 52,202 |
| 2025 | 7 | 44,664 | 48,842 |
| 2026 | 2 | 51,602 | 52,168 |
From Attendance.
In the Big 12
| Season | conf. | overall | finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 8-1 | 11-1 | 1 | |
| 2012 | 5-4 | 7-5 | 4 | |
| 2013 | 7-2 | 10-2 | 3 | |
| 2014 | 4-5 | 6-6 | 7 | |
| 2015 | 7-2 | 10-2 | 2 | |
| 2016 | 7-2 | 9-3 | 2 | |
| 2017 | 6-3 | 9-3 | 3 | |
| 2018 | 3-6 | 6-6 | 9 | |
| 2019 | 5-4 | 8-4 | 4 | |
| 2021 | 8-1 | 11-2 | 1 | lost the title game 16-21 vs Baylor |
| 2022 | 4-5 | 7-5 | 5 | |
| 2023 | 7-2 | 9-4 | 2 | lost the title game 49-21 vs Texas |
| 2024 | 0-9 | 3-9 | 16 | |
| 2025 | 0-9 | 1-11 | 16 |
Regular season, as the tracker keeps it, with ties left standing. Seasons this team was not in the conference are not listed.