TCU Horned Frogs
2-1 overall · 0-0 Big 12 · tied for 4th in the standings
Title-game odds from 40,000 season simulations on the blend of 5 rating systems, the same run behind The Race. The sparkline is the number as it was published each week.
The schedule
North Carolina 15 
Grambling 7 
Arkansas State 7 Every game, conference and not. Played games carry the model's line and the market's as they stood before kickoff, from the week's forecast record, against the result. Unplayed games carry the blend and the market as of this build.
What matters next
TCU's own games
| Game | if TCU wins | if TCU loses | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 13 | TCU at  Texas Tech | 26% | 4.2% | +21 |
| Wk 12 |  Utah at TCU | 18% | 3.0% | +15 |
| Wk 5 |  BYU at TCU | 17% | 2.5% | +14 |
| Wk 10 | TCU at  Arizona | 16% | 3.2% | +13 |
| Wk 11 |  Kansas State at TCU | 14% | 2.3% | +12 |
| Wk 7 | TCU at  Baylor | 14% | 2.8% | +11 |
| Wk 4 | TCU at  UCF | 14% | 2.5% | +11 |
| Wk 9 |  Kansas at TCU | 12% | 2.2% | +10 |
| Wk 8 |  West Virginia at TCU | 11% | 1.8% | +9 |
Everyone else's
| Game | home wins | away wins | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 5 | Texas Tech at  Colorado | 10% | 8.1% | +2 |
| Wk 11 | Texas Tech at  Oklahoma State | 10% | 8.3% | +2 |
| Wk 10 | West Virginia at Texas Tech | 8.4% | 10% | -2 |
| Wk 7 | Utah at Colorado | 10% | 8.1% | +2 |
| Wk 6 | Kansas at Utah | 8.3% | 10% | -2 |
| Wk 12 | Texas Tech at Baylor | 10% | 8.2% | +1 |
TCU's title-game odds under each result, in points of probability, read off the seasons in the baseline run where it went that way: what the board would say on Sunday. A game's own preview shows the other reading, the result asserted and the season run around it.
The Nerds on TCU
| System | rating (pts) | in the Big 12 | picking TCU games |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ (2026) | +8.5 | 6 of 16 | 1-1 |
| FPI (2026) | +4.3 | 8 of 16 | 1-1 |
| Elo (2026) | +3.5 | 6 of 16 | 1-1 |
| SRS (2025) regressed | +4.8 | 6 of 16 | 2-1 |
| Big12ology (2025) regressed | +2.5 | 7 of 16 | 1-0 |
| Vegas | — | — | 1-1 |
Points better than an average FBS team, each system on its own scale. The record is each system's favorite in TCU's games this season, as it stood before kickoff. See The Model.
The draw and the rotation
Expected conference wins on this slate: 4.4, -0.35 against the same team on the average draw, the 3rd hardest of 16. Hardest slate for TCU would be Cincinnati's (4.1), easiest UCF's (5.3).
Misses this season:
- Oklahoma State last met 2024
Arizona State last met 2025
Cincinnati last met 2025- Colorado last met 2025
Houston last met 2025
Iowa State last met 2025
From The Draw and The Rotation.
Home gates
- Wk 2 vs Grambling: 37,600 (96°F)
- Wk 3 vs Arkansas State: 46,139 (94°F)
| Season | home games | average | best |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 44,605 | 48,889 |
| 2025 | 6 | 43,318 | 48,094 |
| 2026 | 2 | 41,870 | 46,139 |
From Attendance.
In the Big 12
| Season | conf. | overall | finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 4-5 | 7-5 | 7 | |
| 2013 | 2-7 | 4-8 | 8 | |
| 2014 | 8-1 | 11-1 | 2 | |
| 2015 | 7-2 | 10-2 | 3 | |
| 2016 | 4-5 | 6-6 | 5 | |
| 2017 | 7-2 | 10-3 | 2 | lost the title game 41-17 vs Oklahoma |
| 2018 | 4-5 | 6-6 | 5 | |
| 2019 | 3-6 | 5-7 | 8 | |
| 2021 | 3-6 | 5-7 | 8 | |
| 2022 | 9-0 | 12-1 | 1 | lost the title game 28-31 vs Kansas State |
| 2023 | 3-6 | 5-7 | 9 | |
| 2024 | 6-3 | 8-4 | 6 | |
| 2025 | 5-4 | 8-4 | 7 |
Regular season, as the tracker keeps it, with ties left standing. Seasons this team was not in the conference are not listed.