Arizona Wildcats
2-1 overall · 0-1 Big 12 · tied for 14th in the standings
Title-game odds from 40,000 season simulations on the blend of 5 rating systems, the same run behind The Race. The sparkline is the number as it was published each week.
The schedule
Northern Arizona 7 
Northern Illinois 17 
Washington State Every game, conference and not. Played games carry the model's line and the market's as they stood before kickoff, from the week's forecast record, against the result. Unplayed games carry the blend and the market as of this build.
What matters next
ARIZ's own games
| Game | if ARIZ wins | if ARIZ loses | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 9 | Arizona at  Texas Tech | 18% | 2.2% | +16 |
| Wk 11 |  Utah at Arizona | 13% | 1.4% | +11 |
| Wk 12 | Arizona at  Kansas State | 12% | 1.5% | +10 |
| Wk 10 |  TCU at Arizona | 9.2% | 0.9% | +8 |
| Wk 5 |  Cincinnati at Arizona | 8.7% | 0.9% | +8 |
| Wk 13 |  Arizona State at Arizona | 8.5% | 0.8% | +8 |
| Wk 8 |  Iowa State at Arizona | 8.4% | 1.0% | +7 |
| Wk 6 | Arizona at  West Virginia | 8.4% | 1.3% | +7 |
Everyone else's
| Game | home wins | away wins | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 11 | Texas Tech at  Oklahoma State | 8.0% | 5.4% | +3 |
| Wk 5 | Texas Tech at  Colorado | 7.7% | 5.4% | +2 |
| Wk 8 | Texas Tech at Cincinnati | 7.2% | 5.3% | +2 |
| Wk 7 | Arizona State at Texas Tech | 5.5% | 7.2% | -2 |
| Wk 10 | West Virginia at Texas Tech | 5.6% | 7.3% | -2 |
| Wk 12 |  BYU at  Kansas | 6.9% | 5.3% | +2 |
Arizona's title-game odds under each result, in points of probability, read off the seasons in the baseline run where it went that way: what the board would say on Sunday. A game's own preview shows the other reading, the result asserted and the season run around it.
The Nerds on ARIZ
| System | rating (pts) | in the Big 12 | picking ARIZ games |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ (2026) | +7.5 | 7 of 16 | 2-0 |
| FPI (2026) | +4.0 | 9 of 16 | 2-0 |
| Elo (2026) | +3.9 | 5 of 16 | 2-0 |
| SRS (2025) regressed | +7.2 | 4 of 16 | 3-0 |
| Big12ology (2025) regressed | +6.2 | 4 of 16 | 1-0 |
| Vegas | — | — | 3-0 |
Points better than an average FBS team, each system on its own scale. The record is each system's favorite in Arizona's games this season, as it stood before kickoff. See The Model.
The draw and the rotation
Expected conference wins on this slate: 4.5, -0.45 against the same team on the average draw, the 2nd hardest of 16. Hardest slate for ARIZ would be Cincinnati's (4.4), easiest UCF's (5.4).
Misses this season:
UCF last met 2024
Baylor last met 2025- Colorado last met 2025
Houston last met 2025- Kansas last met 2025
- Oklahoma State last met 2025
From The Draw and The Rotation.
Home gates
- Wk 1 vs Northern Arizona: 40,129 (95°F)
- Wk 3 vs Northern Illinois: 40,413 (89°F)
| Season | home games | average | best |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7 | 46,747 | 50,724 |
| 2025 | 7 | 41,782 | 47,960 |
| 2026 | 2 | 40,271 | 40,413 |
From Attendance.