Kansas State Wildcats
3-0 overall · 0-0 Big 12 · tied for 4th in the standings
Title-game odds from 40,000 season simulations on the blend of 5 rating systems, the same run behind The Race. The sparkline is the number as it was published each week.
The schedule
Nicholls 3 
Washington State 7 
Tulane 20 Every game, conference and not. Played games carry the model's line and the market's as they stood before kickoff, from the week's forecast record, against the result. Unplayed games carry the blend and the market as of this build.
What matters next
KSU's own games
| Game | if KSU wins | if KSU loses | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 11 | Kansas State at  TCU | 26% | 5.2% | +20 |
| Wk 8 | Kansas State at  Arizona State | 24% | 4.9% | +19 |
| Wk 4 | Kansas State at  Cincinnati | 24% | 5.3% | +19 |
| Wk 13 | Kansas State at  Iowa State | 23% | 5.1% | +18 |
| Wk 12 |  Arizona at Kansas State | 22% | 4.3% | +18 |
| Wk 9 | Kansas State at  Colorado | 21% | 4.4% | +17 |
| Wk 6 |  Houston at Kansas State | 21% | 4.6% | +16 |
| Wk 7 |  Kansas at Kansas State | 19% | 4.1% | +15 |
| Wk 10 |  Oklahoma State at Kansas State | 17% | 3.7% | +14 |
Everyone else's
| Game | home wins | away wins | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 5 |  Texas Tech at Colorado | 18% | 14% | +4 |
| Wk 10 |  West Virginia at Texas Tech | 15% | 18% | -3 |
| Wk 11 | Texas Tech at Oklahoma State | 18% | 14% | +3 |
| Wk 12 | Texas Tech at  Baylor | 17% | 14% | +3 |
| Wk 13 | Cincinnati at  BYU | 14% | 17% | -3 |
| Wk 9 | Arizona at Texas Tech | 14% | 17% | -3 |
Kansas State's title-game odds under each result, in points of probability, read off the seasons in the baseline run where it went that way: what the board would say on Sunday. A game's own preview shows the other reading, the result asserted and the season run around it.
The Nerds on KSU
| System | rating (pts) | in the Big 12 | picking KSU games |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ (2026) | +11.1 | 4 of 16 | 2-0 |
| FPI (2026) | +8.9 | 4 of 16 | 2-0 |
| Elo (2026) | +6.7 | 3 of 16 | 2-0 |
| SRS (2025) regressed | +3.9 | 7 of 16 | 3-0 |
| Big12ology (2025) regressed | +1.6 | 8 of 16 | 1-0 |
| Vegas | — | — | 3-0 |
Points better than an average FBS team, each system on its own scale. The record is each system's favorite in Kansas State's games this season, as it stood before kickoff. See The Model.
The draw and the rotation
Expected conference wins on this slate: 5.5, +0.32 against the same team on the average draw, the 14th hardest of 16. Hardest slate for KSU would be Cincinnati's (4.6), easiest Texas Tech's (5.8).
Misses this season:
- BYU last met 2024
- West Virginia last met 2024
- Baylor last met 2025
- Texas Tech last met 2025
UCF last met 2025
Utah last met 2025
From The Draw and The Rotation.
Home gates
- Wk 1 vs Nicholls: 51,719 (98°F)
- Wk 2 vs Washington State: 51,759 (78°F)
- Wk 3 vs Tulane: 51,846 (85°F)
| Season | home games | average | best |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 51,536 | 52,074 |
| 2025 | 6 | 51,773 | 53,013 |
| 2026 | 3 | 51,775 | 51,846 |
From Attendance.
In the Big 12
| Season | conf. | overall | finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 7-2 | 10-2 | 2 | |
| 2012 | 8-1 | 11-1 | 1 | |
| 2013 | 5-4 | 7-5 | 5 | |
| 2014 | 7-2 | 9-3 | 3 | |
| 2015 | 3-6 | 6-6 | 8 | |
| 2016 | 6-3 | 8-4 | 4 | |
| 2017 | 5-4 | 7-5 | 6 | |
| 2018 | 3-6 | 5-7 | 7 | |
| 2019 | 5-4 | 8-4 | 5 | |
| 2021 | 4-5 | 7-5 | 5 | |
| 2022 | 7-2 | 10-3 | 2 | won the title game 28-31 vs TCU |
| 2023 | 6-3 | 8-4 | 5 | |
| 2024 | 5-4 | 8-4 | 8 | |
| 2025 | 5-4 | 6-6 | 10 |
Regular season, as the tracker keeps it, with ties left standing. Seasons this team was not in the conference are not listed.