Utah Utes
5-0 overall · 2-0 Big 12 · 4th in the standings
Title-game odds from 40,000 season simulations on the blend of 5 rating systems, the same run behind The Race. The sparkline is the number as it was published each week.
The schedule
Idaho 14 
Arkansas 10 
Utah State 0 
Every game, conference and not. Played games carry the model's line and the market's as they stood before kickoff, from the week's forecast record, against the result. Unplayed games carry the blend and the market as of this build.
What matters next
UTAH's own games
| Game | if UTAH wins | if UTAH loses | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 8 |  Houston at Utah | 66% | 20% | +46 |
| Wk 10 |  BYU at Utah | 66% | 22% | +44 |
| Wk 11 | Utah at  Arizona | 66% | 28% | +37 |
| Wk 12 | Utah at  TCU | 61% | 28% | +33 |
| Wk 9 | Utah at  Cincinnati | 58% | 25% | +33 |
| Wk 7 | Utah at  Colorado | 55% | 22% | +33 |
| Wk 13 |  West Virginia at Utah | 54% | 23% | +31 |
Everyone else's
| Game | home wins | away wins | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 10 | West Virginia at  Texas Tech | 51% | 61% | -10 |
| Wk 8 | BYU at  UCF | 57% | 49% | +8 |
| Wk 9 |  Arizona State at BYU | 51% | 59% | -8 |
| Wk 12 | BYU at  Kansas | 57% | 49% | +8 |
| Wk 7 | Arizona State at Texas Tech | 51% | 58% | -7 |
| Wk 8 | Texas Tech at Cincinnati | 57% | 50% | +7 |
Utah's title-game odds under each result, in points of probability, read off the seasons in the baseline run where it went that way: what the board would say on Sunday. A game's own preview shows the other reading, the result asserted and the season run around it.
The Nerds on UTAH
| System | rating (pts) | in the Big 12 | picking UTAH games |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ (2026) | +20.7 | 1 of 16 | 4-0 |
| FPI (2026) | +16.4 | 1 of 16 | 4-0 |
| Elo (2026) | +15.4 | 1 of 16 | 4-0 |
| SRS (2026) | +18.2 | 1 of 16 | 5-0 |
| Big12ology (2026) | +11.3 | 2 of 16 | 3-0 |
| Vegas | — | — | 5-0 |
Points better than an average FBS team, each system on its own scale. The record is each system's favorite in Utah's games this season, as it stood before kickoff. See The Model.
The draw and the rotation
Expected conference wins on this slate: 7.2, +0.10 against the same team on the average draw, the 12th hardest of 16. Hardest slate for UTAH would be Arizona State's (6.7), easiest Kansas State's (7.4).
Misses this season:
Oklahoma State last met 2024- UCF last met 2024
- Arizona State last met 2025
Baylor last met 2025
Kansas State last met 2025- Texas Tech last met 2025
From The Draw and The Rotation.
Home gates
- Wk 1 vs Idaho: 51,444 (82°F)
- Wk 2 vs Arkansas: 51,532 (81°F)
- Wk 3 vs Utah State: 51,455 (64°F)
- Wk 6 vs Kansas: 51,467 (72°F)
| Season | home games | average | best |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 52,962 | 54,383 |
| 2025 | 6 | 51,701 | 52,236 |
| 2026 | 4 | 51,474 | 51,532 |
From Attendance.