UCF Knights
2-1 overall · 0-0 Big 12 · tied for 4th in the standings
Title-game odds from 40,000 season simulations on the blend of 5 rating systems, the same run behind The Race. The sparkline is the number as it was published each week.
The schedule
Bethune-Cookman 6 
Pittsburgh 12 
Georgia State 30 Every game, conference and not. Played games carry the model's line and the market's as they stood before kickoff, from the week's forecast record, against the result. Unplayed games carry the blend and the market as of this build.
What matters next
UCF's own games
| Game | if UCF wins | if UCF loses | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 8 |  BYU at UCF | 14% | 1.6% | +12 |
| Wk 5 | UCF at  Houston | 12% | 2.0% | +10 |
| Wk 4 |  TCU at UCF | 10% | 1.3% | +9 |
| Wk 10 | UCF at  Kansas | 10% | 1.7% | +8 |
| Wk 13 | UCF at  Colorado | 10% | 1.4% | +8 |
| Wk 9 |  Baylor at UCF | 9.0% | 1.2% | +8 |
| Wk 12 |  Iowa State at UCF | 9.1% | 1.2% | +8 |
| Wk 11 |  Arizona State at UCF | 9.1% | 1.4% | +8 |
| Wk 6 | UCF at  Oklahoma State | 8.5% | 1.4% | +7 |
Everyone else's
| Game | home wins | away wins | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 | Arizona State at  Texas Tech | 5.0% | 7.0% | -2 |
| Wk 13 | TCU at Texas Tech | 5.0% | 6.8% | -2 |
| Wk 4 |  Utah at Iowa State | 6.4% | 4.9% | +1 |
| Wk 7 | Utah at Colorado | 6.5% | 5.0% | +1 |
| Wk 12 | Texas Tech at Baylor | 6.4% | 5.0% | +1 |
| Wk 5 | Texas Tech at Colorado | 6.5% | 5.1% | +1 |
UCF's title-game odds under each result, in points of probability, read off the seasons in the baseline run where it went that way: what the board would say on Sunday. A game's own preview shows the other reading, the result asserted and the season run around it.
The Nerds on UCF
| System | rating (pts) | in the Big 12 | picking UCF games |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ (2026) | +2.8 | 12 of 16 | 2-0 |
| FPI (2026) | +2.7 | 11 of 16 | 2-0 |
| Elo (2026) | -1.3 | 13 of 16 | 2-0 |
| SRS (2025) regressed | -1.3 | 13 of 16 | 3-0 |
| Big12ology (2025) regressed | -0.7 | 12 of 16 | 1-0 |
| Vegas | — | — | 3-0 |
Points better than an average FBS team, each system on its own scale. The record is each system's favorite in UCF's games this season, as it stood before kickoff. See The Model.
The draw and the rotation
Expected conference wins on this slate: 4.1, +0.43 against the same team on the average draw, the 16th hardest of 16. Hardest slate for UCF would be Cincinnati's (3.1), easiest Texas Tech's (4.3).
Misses this season:
Arizona last met 2024- Utah last met 2024
Cincinnati last met 2025
Kansas State last met 2025- Texas Tech last met 2025
West Virginia last met 2025
From The Draw and The Rotation.
Home gates
- Wk 1 vs Bethune-Cookman: 43,127 (80°F)
- Wk 3 vs Georgia State: 44,620 (78°F)
| Season | home games | average | best |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7 | 43,047 | 45,702 |
| 2025 | 7 | 43,409 | 44,206 |
| 2026 | 2 | 43,874 | 44,620 |
From Attendance.