Iowa State Cyclones
2-1 overall · 0-0 Big 12 · tied for 4th in the standings
Title-game odds from 40,000 season simulations on the blend of 5 rating systems, the same run behind The Race. The sparkline is the number as it was published each week.
The schedule
Southeast Missouri State 10 
Iowa 16 
Bowling Green 7 Every game, conference and not. Played games carry the model's line and the market's as they stood before kickoff, from the week's forecast record, against the result. Unplayed games carry the blend and the market as of this build.
What matters next
ISU's own games
| Game | if ISU wins | if ISU loses | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | Iowa State at  BYU | 17% | 2.3% | +14 |
| Wk 4 |  Utah at Iowa State | 14% | 1.8% | +12 |
| Wk 8 | Iowa State at  Arizona | 12% | 2.1% | +10 |
| Wk 13 |  Kansas State at Iowa State | 11% | 1.4% | +9 |
| Wk 10 | Iowa State at  Baylor | 11% | 1.9% | +9 |
| Wk 12 | Iowa State at  UCF | 10% | 1.7% | +8 |
| Wk 11 |  Cincinnati at Iowa State | 9.3% | 1.4% | +8 |
| Wk 5 |  West Virginia at Iowa State | 7.8% | 1.1% | +7 |
| Wk 9 |  Oklahoma State at Iowa State | 7.4% | 1.0% | +6 |
Everyone else's
| Game | home wins | away wins | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 10 | West Virginia at  Texas Tech | 5.4% | 7.7% | -2 |
| Wk 11 | Texas Tech at Oklahoma State | 7.2% | 5.4% | +2 |
| Wk 8 | Texas Tech at Cincinnati | 6.9% | 5.2% | +2 |
| Wk 12 | BYU at  Kansas | 6.6% | 5.2% | +1 |
| Wk 7 | Utah at  Colorado | 6.7% | 5.4% | +1 |
| Wk 9 | Arizona at Texas Tech | 5.4% | 6.7% | -1 |
Iowa State's title-game odds under each result, in points of probability, read off the seasons in the baseline run where it went that way: what the board would say on Sunday. A game's own preview shows the other reading, the result asserted and the season run around it.
The Nerds on ISU
| System | rating (pts) | in the Big 12 | picking ISU games |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ (2026) | +0.7 | 15 of 16 | 2-0 |
| FPI (2026) | -1.2 | 16 of 16 | 2-0 |
| Elo (2026) | +3.1 | 7 of 16 | 2-0 |
| SRS (2025) regressed | +5.5 | 5 of 16 | 3-0 |
| Big12ology (2025) regressed | +3.4 | 5 of 16 | 1-0 |
| Vegas | — | — | 3-0 |
Points better than an average FBS team, each system on its own scale. The record is each system's favorite in Iowa State's games this season, as it stood before kickoff. See The Model.
The draw and the rotation
Expected conference wins on this slate: 4.2, +0.09 against the same team on the average draw, the 12th hardest of 16. Hardest slate for ISU would be Cincinnati's (3.5), easiest Texas Tech's (4.7).
Misses this season:
Houston last met 2024- Texas Tech last met 2024
Arizona State last met 2025- Colorado last met 2025
- Kansas last met 2025
TCU last met 2025
From The Draw and The Rotation.
Home gates
- Wk 1 vs Southeast Missouri State: 51,802 (86°F)
- Wk 3 vs Bowling Green: 50,395 (79°F)
| Season | home games | average | best |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7 | 57,884 | 61,500 |
| 2025 | 6 | 60,862 | 61,500 |
| 2026 | 2 | 51,098 | 51,802 |
From Attendance.
In the Big 12
| Season | conf. | overall | finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 3-6 | 6-6 | 8 | |
| 2012 | 3-6 | 6-6 | 9 | |
| 2013 | 2-7 | 3-9 | 9 | |
| 2014 | 0-9 | 2-10 | 10 | |
| 2015 | 2-7 | 3-9 | 9 | |
| 2016 | 2-7 | 3-9 | 9 | |
| 2017 | 5-4 | 7-5 | 7 | |
| 2018 | 6-3 | 8-4 | 3 | |
| 2019 | 5-4 | 7-5 | 6 | |
| 2021 | 5-4 | 7-5 | 4 | |
| 2022 | 1-8 | 4-8 | 10 | |
| 2023 | 6-3 | 7-5 | 4 | |
| 2024 | 7-2 | 10-3 | 2 | lost the title game 45-19 vs Arizona State |
| 2025 | 5-4 | 8-4 | 8 |
Regular season, as the tracker keeps it, with ties left standing. Seasons this team was not in the conference are not listed.