Baylor Bears
2-1 overall · 0-0 Big 12 · tied for 4th in the standings
Title-game odds from 40,000 season simulations on the blend of 5 rating systems, the same run behind The Race. The sparkline is the number as it was published each week.
The schedule
Auburn 17 
Prairie View A&M 3 
Louisiana Tech 19 Every game, conference and not. Played games carry the model's line and the market's as they stood before kickoff, from the week's forecast record, against the result. Unplayed games carry the blend and the market as of this build.
What matters next
BAY's own games
| Game | if BAY wins | if BAY loses | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 12 |  Texas Tech at Baylor | 14% | 1.7% | +12 |
| Wk 11 | Baylor at  BYU | 14% | 2.1% | +12 |
| Wk 13 | Baylor at  Houston | 10% | 1.6% | +9 |
| Wk 5 | Baylor at  Arizona State | 10% | 1.4% | +8 |
| Wk 7 |  TCU at Baylor | 8.6% | 1.1% | +7 |
| Wk 8 | Baylor at  Kansas | 8.8% | 1.4% | +7 |
| Wk 9 | Baylor at  UCF | 8.7% | 1.4% | +7 |
| Wk 10 |  Iowa State at Baylor | 7.8% | 1.1% | +7 |
| Wk 4 |  Colorado at Baylor | 6.9% | 1.1% | +6 |
Everyone else's
| Game | home wins | away wins | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 5 | Texas Tech at Colorado | 6.5% | 4.4% | +2 |
| Wk 10 |  West Virginia at Texas Tech | 4.7% | 6.1% | -1 |
| Wk 8 | Texas Tech at  Cincinnati | 5.8% | 4.5% | +1 |
| Wk 7 |  Utah at Colorado | 5.7% | 4.6% | +1 |
| Wk 9 | Utah at Cincinnati | 5.5% | 4.5% | +1 |
| Wk 6 | Iowa State at BYU | 4.6% | 5.6% | -1 |
Baylor's title-game odds under each result, in points of probability, read off the seasons in the baseline run where it went that way: what the board would say on Sunday. A game's own preview shows the other reading, the result asserted and the season run around it.
The Nerds on BAY
| System | rating (pts) | in the Big 12 | picking BAY games |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ (2026) | +4.6 | 10 of 16 | 2-0 |
| FPI (2026) | +6.2 | 7 of 16 | 2-0 |
| Elo (2026) | +0.2 | 11 of 16 | 2-0 |
| SRS (2025) regressed | -0.4 | 12 of 16 | 3-0 |
| Big12ology (2025) regressed | -0.7 | 13 of 16 | 1-0 |
| Vegas | — | — | 2-0 |
Points better than an average FBS team, each system on its own scale. The record is each system's favorite in Baylor's games this season, as it stood before kickoff. See The Model.
The draw and the rotation
Expected conference wins on this slate: 3.9, -0.16 against the same team on the average draw, the 4th hardest of 16. Hardest slate for BAY would be Cincinnati's (3.5), easiest UCF's (4.5).
Misses this season:
- West Virginia last met 2024
Arizona last met 2025- Cincinnati last met 2025
Kansas State last met 2025
Oklahoma State last met 2025- Utah last met 2025
From The Draw and The Rotation.
Home gates
- Wk 2 vs Prairie View A&M: 38,642 (92°F)
- Wk 3 vs Louisiana Tech: 41,343 (94°F)
| Season | home games | average | best |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 42,302 | 46,212 |
| 2025 | 7 | 39,447 | 45,233 |
| 2026 | 2 | 39,992 | 41,343 |
From Attendance.
In the Big 12
| Season | conf. | overall | finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 6-3 | 9-3 | 4 | |
| 2012 | 4-5 | 7-5 | 5 | |
| 2013 | 8-1 | 11-1 | 1 | |
| 2014 | 8-1 | 11-1 | 1 | |
| 2015 | 6-3 | 9-3 | 4 | |
| 2016 | 3-6 | 6-6 | 8 | |
| 2017 | 1-8 | 1-11 | 9 | |
| 2018 | 4-5 | 6-6 | 6 | |
| 2019 | 8-1 | 11-2 | 1 | lost the title game 30-23 vs Oklahoma |
| 2021 | 7-2 | 11-2 | 2 | won the title game 16-21 vs Oklahoma State |
| 2022 | 4-5 | 6-6 | 6 | |
| 2023 | 2-7 | 3-9 | 13 | |
| 2024 | 6-3 | 8-4 | 5 | |
| 2025 | 3-6 | 5-7 | 11 |
Regular season, as the tracker keeps it, with ties left standing. Seasons this team was not in the conference are not listed.