Texas Tech Red Raiders
3-0 overall · 1-0 Big 12 · tied for 1st in the standings
Title-game odds from 40,000 season simulations on the blend of 5 rating systems, the same run behind The Race. The sparkline is the number as it was published each week.
The schedule
Abilene Christian 10 
Oregon State 24 
Sam Houston Every game, conference and not. Played games carry the model's line and the market's as they stood before kickoff, from the week's forecast record, against the result. Unplayed games carry the blend and the market as of this build.
What matters next
TTU's own games
| Game | if TTU wins | if TTU loses | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 13 |  TCU at Texas Tech | 69% | 27% | +42 |
| Wk 7 |  Arizona State at Texas Tech | 68% | 27% | +41 |
| Wk 9 |  Arizona at Texas Tech | 70% | 30% | +40 |
| Wk 8 | Texas Tech at  Cincinnati | 71% | 34% | +38 |
| Wk 5 | Texas Tech at  Colorado | 68% | 31% | +37 |
| Wk 10 |  West Virginia at Texas Tech | 64% | 28% | +36 |
| Wk 12 | Texas Tech at  Baylor | 70% | 34% | +36 |
| Wk 11 | Texas Tech at  Oklahoma State | 66% | 31% | +35 |
Everyone else's
| Game | home wins | away wins | swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 |  Kansas at  Utah | 60% | 65% | -5 |
| Wk 12 |  BYU at Kansas | 64% | 59% | +5 |
| Wk 8 |  Houston at Utah | 59% | 64% | -5 |
| Wk 5 | BYU at TCU | 63% | 59% | +5 |
| Wk 13 | West Virginia at Utah | 60% | 65% | -5 |
| Wk 12 | Utah at TCU | 63% | 59% | +5 |
Texas Tech's title-game odds under each result, in points of probability, read off the seasons in the baseline run where it went that way: what the board would say on Sunday. A game's own preview shows the other reading, the result asserted and the season run around it.
The Nerds on TTU
| System | rating (pts) | in the Big 12 | picking TTU games |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ (2026) | +16.3 | 1 of 16 | 2-0 |
| FPI (2026) | +14.1 | 1 of 16 | 2-0 |
| Elo (2026) | +12.6 | 2 of 16 | 2-0 |
| SRS (2025) regressed | +13.7 | 1 of 16 | 3-0 |
| Big12ology (2025) regressed | +16.4 | 1 of 16 | 1-0 |
| Vegas | — | — | 3-0 |
Points better than an average FBS team, each system on its own scale. The record is each system's favorite in Texas Tech's games this season, as it stood before kickoff. See The Model.
The draw and the rotation
Expected conference wins on this slate: 7.5, +0.39 against the same team on the average draw, the 15th hardest of 16. Hardest slate for TTU would be Cincinnati's (6.7), easiest Oklahoma State's (7.4).
Misses this season:
Iowa State last met 2024- BYU last met 2025
- Kansas last met 2025
Kansas State last met 2025
UCF last met 2025- Utah last met 2025
From The Draw and The Rotation.
Home gates
- Wk 1 vs Abilene Christian: 60,229 (96°F)
- Wk 3 vs Houston: 60,229 (90°F)
| Season | home games | average | best |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7 | 58,623 | 60,229 |
| 2025 | 7 | 60,143 | 60,229 |
| 2026 | 2 | 60,229 | 60,229 |
From Attendance.
In the Big 12
| Season | conf. | overall | finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 2-7 | 5-7 | 9 | |
| 2012 | 4-5 | 7-5 | 6 | |
| 2013 | 4-5 | 7-5 | 6 | |
| 2014 | 2-7 | 4-8 | 8 | |
| 2015 | 4-5 | 7-5 | 6 | |
| 2016 | 3-6 | 5-7 | 7 | |
| 2017 | 3-6 | 6-6 | 8 | |
| 2018 | 3-6 | 5-7 | 8 | |
| 2019 | 2-7 | 4-8 | 9 | |
| 2021 | 3-6 | 6-6 | 9 | |
| 2022 | 5-4 | 7-5 | 4 | |
| 2023 | 5-4 | 6-6 | 7 | |
| 2024 | 6-3 | 8-4 | 7 | |
| 2025 | 8-1 | 12-1 | 1 | won the title game 34-7 vs BYU |
Regular season, as the tracker keeps it, with ties left standing. Seasons this team was not in the conference are not listed.