Big 12 Tiebreaker Tracker 202620252024

The 2025 season as it finished, with the official tiebreaking procedures applied to the final results.

Cincinnati Bearcats

7-5 overall · 5-4 Big 12 · 9th in the standings

The schedule

Week 1
Nebraska 20 vs Cincinnati 17 non-conf
final
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Kansas City, MO (neutral)
Average 77°F, 6 mph, 49% rain
Nebraska -6
model CIN -1.5 · actual -3 · fell short by 1.5
Week 2
Bowling Green 20 at Cincinnati 34 non-conf
final
Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
Average 71°F, 6 mph, 35% rain
Cincinnati -22
model CIN +16.4 · actual +14 · fell short by 2.4
Week 3
Northwestern State 0 at Cincinnati 70 non-conf
final
Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
Average 71°F, 6 mph, 35% rain
Cincinnati -48.5
model CIN +51.6 · actual +70 · covered by 18.4
Week 5
final
Memorial Stadium · Lawrence, KS
Average 71°F, 7 mph, 33% rain
Kansas -5.2
model CIN -2.9 · actual +3 · covered by 5.9
Week 6
final
Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
Average 63°F, 6 mph, 35% rain
Cincinnati -1.7
model CIN -3.6 · actual +8 · covered by 11.6
Week 7
UCF 11 at Cincinnati 20
final
Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
Average 63°F, 6 mph, 35% rain
Cincinnati -10.3
model CIN +5.8 · actual +9 · covered by 3.2
Week 8
final
Boone Pickens Stadium · Stillwater, OK
Average 60°F, 9 mph, 30% rain
Cincinnati -23.7
model CIN +13.4 · actual +32 · covered by 18.6
Week 9
final
Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
Average 54°F, 7 mph, 43% rain
Cincinnati -3.5
model CIN +3.7 · actual +21 · covered by 17.3
Week 10
Cincinnati 14 at Utah 45
final
Rice-Eccles Stadium · Salt Lake City, UT
Average 44°F, 4 mph, 21% rain
Utah -10.7
model CIN -20.6 · actual -31 · fell short by 10.4
Week 12
final
Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
Average 48°F, 7 mph, 35% rain
Cincinnati -6
model CIN -5.9 · actual -6 · fell short by 0.1
Week 13
BYU 26 at Cincinnati 14
final
Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
Average 42°F, 8 mph, 43% rain
BYU -2.5
model CIN -8.9 · actual -12 · fell short by 3.1
Week 14
Cincinnati 23 at TCU 45
final
Amon G. Carter Stadium · Fort Worth, TX
Average 57°F, 9 mph, 27% rain
TCU -3.2
model CIN -7.9 · actual -22 · fell short by 14.1

Every game, conference and not. Each game carries the blend's line on the season's final ratings against the result: what the systems made of the matchup with the whole season known, not what they said before kickoff.

The Nerds on CIN

Systemrating (pts)in the Big 12picking CIN games
SP+ (2025)+2.79 of 168-3
Elo (2025)-1.612 of 169-2
SRS (2025)+1.611 of 169-3
Vegas10-2

Points better than an average FBS team, each system on its own scale. The record is each system's favorite in Cincinnati's games this season, on the season's final ratings. See The Model.

The draw and the rotation

Expected conference wins on this slate: 3.8, -0.00 against the same team on the average draw, the 9th hardest of 16. Hardest slate for CIN would be Colorado's (3.1), easiest Houston's (4.6).

Misses this season:

From The Draw and The Rotation.

Home gates

  • Wk 2 vs Bowling Green: 35,421 (72°F)
  • Wk 3 vs Northwestern State: 30,014 (86°F)
  • Wk 6 vs Iowa State: 38,007 (78°F)
  • Wk 7 vs UCF: 35,782 (64°F)
  • Wk 9 vs Baylor: 38,007 (54°F)
  • Wk 12 vs Arizona: 37,099 (64°F)
  • Wk 13 vs BYU: 38,034 (44°F)
Seasonhome gamesaveragebest
2023738,19338,193
2024636,61538,007
2025736,05238,034

From Attendance.

In the Big 12

Seasonconf.overallfinish
20231-83-914
20243-65-711

Regular season, as the tracker keeps it, with ties left standing. Seasons this team was not in the conference are not listed.