Big 12 Tiebreaker Tracker 202620252024

The 2025 season as it finished, with the official tiebreaking procedures applied to the final results.

Colorado Buffaloes

3-9 overall · 1-8 Big 12 · 15th in the standings

The schedule

Week 1
Georgia Tech 27 at Colorado 20 non-conf
final
Folsom Field · Boulder, CO
Average 70°F, 5 mph, 37% rain
Georgia Tech -3.7
model COLO -10.0 · actual -7 · covered by 3.0
Week 2
Delaware 7 at Colorado 31 non-conf
final
Folsom Field · Boulder, CO
Average 67°F, 5 mph, 34% rain
Colorado -23.5
model COLO +6.5 · actual +24 · covered by 17.5
Week 3
Colorado 20 at Houston 36
final
TDECU Stadium · Houston, TX
Average 80°F, 6 mph, 65% rain
Houston -3.8
model COLO -12.5 · actual -16 · fell short by 3.5
Week 4
Wyoming 20 at Colorado 37 non-conf
final
Folsom Field · Boulder, CO
Average 61°F, 5 mph, 23% rain
Colorado -12.3
model COLO +6.8 · actual +17 · covered by 10.2
Week 5
BYU 24 at Colorado 21
final
Folsom Field · Boulder, CO
Average 61°F, 5 mph, 23% rain
BYU -6.5
model COLO -16.5 · actual -3 · covered by 13.5
Week 6
Colorado 21 at TCU 35
final
Amon G. Carter Stadium · Fort Worth, TX
Average 75°F, 8 mph, 23% rain
TCU -13.8
model COLO -15.5 · actual -14 · covered by 1.5
Week 7
final
Folsom Field · Boulder, CO
Average 52°F, 5 mph, 30% rain
Iowa State -2.8
model COLO -11.2 · actual +7 · covered by 18.2
Week 9
Colorado 7 at Utah 53
final
Rice-Eccles Stadium · Salt Lake City, UT
Average 48°F, 4 mph, 26% rain
Utah -14.2
model COLO -28.1 · actual -46 · fell short by 17.9
Week 10
Arizona 52 at Colorado 17
final
Folsom Field · Boulder, CO
Average 41°F, 5 mph, 24% rain
Arizona -3.7
model COLO -13.5 · actual -35 · fell short by 21.5
Week 11
final
Milan Puskar Stadium · Morgantown, WV
Average 47°F, 7 mph, 39% rain
West Virginia -6.5
model COLO -2.1 · actual -7 · fell short by 4.9
Week 13
final
Folsom Field · Boulder, CO
Average 36°F, 5 mph, 28% rain
Arizona State -6.8
model COLO -7.7 · actual -25 · fell short by 17.3
Week 14
final
Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Manhattan, KS
Average 43°F, 9 mph, 29% rain
Kansas State -16.5
model COLO -14.7 · actual -10 · covered by 4.7

Every game, conference and not. Each game carries the blend's line on the season's final ratings against the result: what the systems made of the matchup with the whole season known, not what they said before kickoff.

The Nerds on COLO

Systemrating (pts)in the Big 12picking COLO games
SP+ (2025)-10.115 of 1611-1
Elo (2025)-6.314 of 1611-1
SRS (2025)-3.514 of 1611-1
Vegas11-1

Points better than an average FBS team, each system on its own scale. The record is each system's favorite in Colorado's games this season, on the season's final ratings. See The Model.

The draw and the rotation

Expected conference wins on this slate: 1.7, -0.55 against the same team on the average draw, the 1st hardest of 16. Hardest slate for COLO would be BYU's (1.8), easiest Houston's (2.7).

Misses this season:

From The Draw and The Rotation.

Home gates

  • Wk 1 vs Georgia Tech: 52,868 (71°F)
  • Wk 2 vs Delaware: 50,341 (73°F)
  • Wk 4 vs Wyoming: 53,442 (60°F)
  • Wk 5 vs BYU: 52,265 (61°F)
  • Wk 7 vs Iowa State: 52,698 (63°F)
  • Wk 10 vs Arizona: 48,322 (59°F)
  • Wk 13 vs Arizona State: 43,348 (44°F)
Seasonhome gamesaveragebest
2023653,18054,032
2024652,51454,646
2025750,46953,442

From Attendance.

In the Big 12

Seasonconf.overallfinish
20247-29-34

Regular season, as the tracker keeps it, with ties left standing. Seasons this team was not in the conference are not listed.